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Show me the numbers! NCALNE Market saturation

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Graeme Smith
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show me the numbers

This is interesting… Data is from the NZQA data set for NCALNE qualifications as reported in the Tertiary Education Targeted Review of Qualification (TRoQ) needs analysis. Data is for 2012.

  • 485,000 NZers with no qualifications in 2012.
  • 310,000 NZers currently in work with no qualifications in 2012.
  • 254,000 assessments carried out using the Literacy and Numeracy for Adults Assessment Tool.
  • 250,000 jobs ceased to exist in any given year.
  • 250,000 new jobs are created in any given year.
  • 101,000 learners assessed using the Literacy and Numeracy for Adults Assessment Tool.
  • 55,000 people aged 15-24 not in employment, education or training in 2013
  • 35,000 full time equivalent staff employed by recognised tertiary organisations.
  • 27,000 actual tertiary education teachers, learning facilitators, and assessors working in 2012.
  • 16,000 tutors and teaching staff to whom pre-degree teacher education qualifications of any kind may be relevant in 2012.
  • 2,570 graduates in total from NCALNE (Voc) and NCALNE (Educator) from 2009-2012.
  • 2,198 NCALNE (Voc) graduates in total from between 2009-2012.
  • 1494 NCALNE (Voc) graduates from 4 private training organisations including ALEC as well as Te Wananga o Aotearoa.
  • 373 NCALNE (Voc) graduates from Institutes of Technology and Polytechs (ITPs).
  • 372 NCALNE (Ed) graduates from 2009-2012.
  • 210 NCALNE (Ed) graduates from Literacy Aotearoa.
  • 35 providers offering the NCALNE (Voc) between 2009-2012.
  • 5: Number of providers delivering the NCALNE (Ed) between 2009-2012.
  • 0: Number of universities or ITPs requiring a teaching qualification as a pre-requisite for appointment as full time staff in 2010.

Aside from the fact that this data is now out of date by two years, thoughts anyone…?

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Comments

12 responses to “Show me the numbers! NCALNE Market saturation”

  1. Sittingbull Avatar
    Sittingbull

    Well, the 27000 educators is a big number. And only 2570 with the NCALNE. How many of those are still in the sector given the churn? So whatever the number, it’s below 10% right? That’s a pretty massive number to qualify before it becomes mandatory.

    I also wonder how many tutors are sitting on non-completions with just a few assignments to hand in? Hundreds?

    Makes me question the TEC’s commitment to making it mandatory. The logistics just don’t work.

    It will either lead to massive funding reductions for those organisations who receive L&N funding streams or massive pay rises for those with the qual (perhaps both)? I mean the Youth Guarantee programme has ELN as a mandatory component.

    Either way it suggests a massive correction at some point.

    The ALEC fast track option may be very popular.

    Reply
    1. Graeme Smith Avatar
      Graeme Smith

      Hi Sitting Bull:

      Thanks for the comments…!

      I think we’re looking at around 16,000 as a market target where there is some relevance. So that’s around 16% saturation as of 2012 if you ignore the (possibly massive) churn that happens in YG and other level 1 and 2 training.

      I think you’re possibly right about large numbers of tutors who are only a few steps away from completing their NCALNE (Voc). We do a few portfolio assessments like this a year at ALEC, but I’m sure we could do a whole lot more…

      Re the possible funding reductions for organisations that don’t have qualified tutors, it will be interesting to see if the TEC have any teeth or not. They certainly do when it comes to clawing back funds through their cost recovery methodology.

      However, I’m not sure what the situation will be in 2015. There is some indication that there will be study grants to continue to fund the NCALNE training (or subsidise it) and we’ll likely see a bigger push online due to the economics of it all e.g. through Pathways Awarua.

      However, there are plenty of other things going on that could destroy the incentives for people to work in this space such as the MinEdu’s current drive to make the ALEG funded professional develop zero fees… Doesn’t seem well thought through unless they’re trying to wipe out external providers and encourage internal provision.

      Cheers, G

      Reply
  2. Sittingbull Avatar
    Sittingbull

    101,000 learners assessed using the Tool. Was that in 2012 only? If so, that is a massive amount of learners in those funding streams. Be interesting to know how many new learners enter YG every year at age 16.

    Reply
    1. Graeme Smith Avatar
      Graeme Smith

      Just in: I thought that the TEC said that there are currently something like 10,000 YG places funded in NZ. Not sure how many are highschool versus PTE or ITP though. I could only find this just now which suggest around 5,500 places… still that’s got to be in excess of 300 tutors of some kind

      Reply
      1. Sittingbull Avatar
        Sittingbull

        Very interesting – actually that’s less than i would have thought. But I don’t understand their rationale behind reducing funding for providers of the NCALNE.

  3. Graeme Smith Avatar
    Graeme Smith

    They’re not reducing funding potentially (from their side). They’re going to restrict the ability for providers to charge a fee on top of the ALEG funding. Either it’s a nasty double edged sword, or it’s just not been thought through carefully and they’ll sort out the fishhooks before Investment Plans are in for 2015 (in which case I should adopt a more Stoic attitude and stop taking it personally…)

    Reply
  4. Sittingbull Avatar
    Sittingbull

    I don’t understand what authority they have to do that. Market value would determine the price surely.

    What am I missing. How can they limit what you charge?

    Reply
  5. Sittingbull Avatar
    Sittingbull

    Okay I have done some investigating. Think I’ve got it. Don’t reply. Go do some work.

    Reply
    1. Graeme Smith Avatar
      Graeme Smith

      😉 gotta finish the business plan…

      Reply
  6. rbulliff Avatar
    rbulliff

    Looks like a bit of a gap … between what will shortly be required in terms of educators’ quals, and where people are currently operating from.

    Rachel Bulliff

    Reply
    1. Graeme Smith Avatar
      Graeme Smith

      Thanks Rachel… Yes I agree. 2015 could be quite an interesting year. We just need some assurance around the funding and I’ll be able to sleep at night…

      Reply
    2. Graeme Smith Avatar
      Graeme Smith

      Hi Rachel. Yep…! Not sure what’s coming next, but it’s going to be interesting times. Cheers, G

      Reply

Kia ora! Hey, I'd love to know what you think.

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